Probability is a branch of mathematics that focuses on understanding how likely events are to happen. It’s all about predicting the chances of different outcomes.
Terms like, likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible were discussed using weather as the context. For example, ‘Is it likely to rain if the sky is dark and cloudy?‘ If the sun is out what is the chance of rain during the day? The students could look at the sky outside and make predictions about the weather.
I am certain it will be a sunny day today as the sky is blue and there are no clouds.
It is unlikely to rain today because it is sunny.
Now that students had explored some of the vocabulary of probability through weather, Room 12 moved to a new activity. Students used plastic blocks and a black felt bag to explore the concept of ‘chance’. They did this by taking out different coloured blocks at random. I questioned them. For example, if the bag contains 2 blue blocks and 1 red block, which colour block is more likely to be picked?
The chance of getting a blue block is more likely because there are more blue blocks.
If we put one more red block in the bag it would make it fair.
To develop this concept even further, the class matched chance words on a chart. The challenge was for the students to put the correct meanings under the words.
Valentina explained that certain meant it must happen.
Likely means it could or couldn’t happen.
May means it may happen or it may not.
From here, Room 12 played the game, ‘No Way Jose.’ This NZ Maths problem-solving task supports students to develop reasoning skills. A scenario that is puzzling at first, challenges students to discuss statements and determine if they are true, false, or possible. The scenarios chosen were the tales of Little Red Riding Hood, The Gingerbread Man, and Maui and the Sun. Different chance words were used with each scenario as the pictures show below. For example, there is ‘no way jose’, that the Gingerbread Man would stop at traffic lights. Maui would never travel in a plane. Little Red Riding Hood might see a butterfly. These scenarios created lots of rich discussions and debate.
It could be possible that there is a rooster in the Gingerbread Man story.
There won’t be an octopus in the Little Red Riding Hood story.
There never was a plane in the Maui and the Sun story.
Using a variety of activities such as children’s stories, pictures and probability words gave the students different ways of looking at a problem while learning about chance and probability.
My passion is to create a love of learning so my students become ‘lifelong learners’. My focus is the importance of acquiring knowledge so I can keep informed and keep my students up to date with new learning strategies.
I am a local here and enjoy all that Taupō has to offer. I love walking with my husband and dog by the lake or river, having coffee with friends, family gatherings, and gardening. When not in Taupō I enjoy being by the sea at Papamoa.
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